India and China’s Neighbours: Carefully Does It

(Published as जबिन टी. जेकब, “संबंधों में साहस और सतर्कता जरूरी,” Business Bhaskar, 24 January 2013, p. 4.)

The recent visits of Indian Vice-President Hamid Ansari and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Vietnam are signs of a growing convergence of concerns that these countries have about China. China’s rapid military modernization and its assertiveness in the last few years on various territorial disputes have belied the hope that China’s regional and global economic integration would also ensure a more peaceful China.

In China’s own view, its actions are reasonable and justified in the face of provocations from its neighbours. Leaving aside the veracity of China’s claims, the object here is to examine the strategic coming together of India, Vietnam and Japan vis-à-vis China. Continue reading “India and China’s Neighbours: Carefully Does It”

The Search for a Chinese Model of International Relations

Originally published as Jabin T. Jacob, “China in Southeast Asia: The Search for a Chinese Model of International Relations,” Special Issue: China and Southeast Asia, China Report, Vol. 48, No. 3, August 2012, pp. 317-326.

Abstract: Despite China’s claims of a foreign policy of ‘peaceful rise’/‘peaceful development’ and of seeking a ‘harmonious world’, and despite its economic openness and active participation in economic multilateralism, China’s neighbours continue to be concerned about the overall direction and intent of Beijing’s security policies. These concerns are particularly heightened by China’s rapid military modernization of the past couple of decades. The announcement in 2010 that China considered its territorial claims in the South China Sea a ‘core interest’, can be seen as a setback to its regional diplomacy, so diligently crafted over the years and drove its Southeast Asian neighbours to seek closer engagement with the US. This article argues that the contradictions evident in China’s neighbourhood foreign policy reflect its continuing search for a model of international relations that can balance its domestic interests such as the need for political stability, including regime stability, on the one hand and its external ambitions for a decisive role in regional affairs, on the other.

Read the full article here.

Foreign Policy under China’s New Leaders: What India can Expect

(original version in English follows below Hindi text)

चीन में नेतृत्व परिवर्तन की एक बड़ी कवायद पूरी हो चुकी है। कुछ दिनों पहले 18वीं नेशनल कांग्रेस में शी जिनपिंग को चीनी कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी का महासचिव बना दिया गया। अब तक यह कमान हू जिंताओ की पास थी। शी ने सेंट्र्ल मिलिट्री कमीशन (सीएमसी) के चेयरमैन का भी पद संभाल लिया है। यह एक अहम पद है और इसके जरिये वह चीन की पीपुल्स लिबरेशन आर्मी के प्रभारी हो गए हैं। इसके साथ ही शी तीसरे अहम पद के तौर पर मार्च, 2013 में राष्ट्रपति का भी पद संभाल लेंगे।

अब सवाल यह है कि नए नेतृत्व के तहत चीन की विदेश नीति कैसी होगी? Continue reading “Foreign Policy under China’s New Leaders: What India can Expect”

New Leadership in China: Quo Vadis Political Reform?

Xi Jinping has, as expected, taken over as the new General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at its 18th National Congress.  The new Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) also includes Li Keqiang (like Xi, a member of the previous PBSC), Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, and Zhang Gaoli.

Representing the fifth-generation of China’s communist leaders after Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi and his team have some onerous tasks to gear up to. While the rest of the world, including India, can often focus only on China’s increasing global economic imprint and its rapid military modernization, for China’s leaders themselves the most important concerns have always been domestic ones. And of these, none are as important as the ones about maintaining social stability and the necessity of political reform.

The new PBSC is widely perceived by Western and Chinese observers as being short of genuine political reformers. Further, quite a few on the new PBSC – including Xi himself – have depended on their identity as members of elite communist families to rise to their current posts. In this sense, there is much similarity with the Indian political scene. The cabinet reshuffle by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last month for example, had several young representatives of India’s own elite political families climbing into more senior positions. Continue reading “New Leadership in China: Quo Vadis Political Reform?”

Post-China’s 18th Party Congress: Socioeconomic Challenges Paramount

(original version in English follows below Malayalam text)

ദശാബ്ദത്തിലൊരിക്കല്‍ നടക്കുന്ന നേതൃമാറ്റം പൂര്‍ത്തീകരിച്ച് ചൈനീസ് കമ്യൂണിസ്റ്റ്പാര്‍ട്ടി (സി.പി.സി.)യുടെ 18-ാം കോണ്‍ഗ്രസ് ഈയിടെ ബെയ്ജിങ്ങില്‍ സമാപിച്ചല്ലോ. ഹു ജിന്താവോയ്ക്കുകീഴില്‍ പ്രവര്‍ത്തിച്ച നാലാംതലമുറ നേതൃത്വം ഷി ജിന്‍പിങ്ങിനുപിന്നില്‍ അണിനിരക്കുന്ന അഞ്ചാംതലമുറയ്ക്ക് ചുമതല കൈമാറി. ചൈനയുടെ രാഷ്ട്രീയവും സാമ്പത്തികവും സൈനികവുമായ വളര്‍ച്ചയെ ലോകം ആരാധനയോടെയോ അങ്കലാപ്പോടെയോ നോക്കിക്കാണുമ്പോഴും രാജ്യം നേരിടുന്ന നിരവധി ആഭ്യന്തര വെല്ലുവിളികളിലാണ് സി.പി.സി.യുടെ 18-ാം കോണ്‍ഗ്രസ് ശ്രദ്ധയൂന്നിയത്. Continue reading “Post-China’s 18th Party Congress: Socioeconomic Challenges Paramount”

China Studies in India: Of Caste, Class and Capital

An All India China Scholars Colloquium was organized by the Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS) in New Delhi on 11 August 2012 with the objective of bringing in scholars from different parts of the country to hear their views on three issues: the priorities and challenges in Chinese Studies in the country, impediments to institutionalizing Chinese Studies in India and, the implementation of partnerships between Indian and Chinese institutions.

In his keynote address, Prof. Manoranjan Mohanty flagged three key problems of Chinese Studies in India. One, a lot of research related to China was media-driven while in fact, researchers ought not to focus simply on the topic du jour but think beyond to larger issues and problems. Further, the focus on media-dependant or media-driven research risked two additional problems of being misled or misdirected either by Western biases or by Chinese state propaganda. Two, Indian scholars had failed to come up with alternatives to the dominant Western discourses and models of the study of China ranging from Sino-centrism to cultural relativism to modernization theories. And three, an assessment of the state of Chinese Studies in India revealed that there were in fact more comparative studies about India and China originating abroad rather than India itself. In this sense, older generations of China scholars in India had failed in their goal of developing comparative frameworks on India-China studies and it was the media and Western discourses that had either driven or become the foundation of the Indian state’s efforts at understanding China.

I was discussant in the first session outlining the challenges and priorities in the field. The session opened with the lead speaker Dr. Tansen Sen, Associate Professor of Asian History and Religions, Baruch College, City University of New York highlighting three challenges before Chinese Studies in India – the lack of proper infrastructure, including lack of world class teachers and researchers; the lack of curriculum reform to enable the integration of language studies with disciplinary expertise and analytical tools; and, skewed employment opportunities. (His full presentation was later published in the Economic and Political Weekly and can be read here.)

In my presentation, I too raised three issues that I thought Chinese Studies, and Indian academia, in general had to engage with – caste, class and capital. There was surprise, some mystification and as the session progressed, not a little hostility, to the raising of these issues. Chinese Studies in India has problems enough. Continue reading “China Studies in India: Of Caste, Class and Capital”

The US ‘Pivot’ to Asia: Impact on Indian Foreign and Security Policies

Originally published as “美国 ‘转向’ 亚洲: 对印度外交和安全政策的影响,” (“The US ‘Pivot’ to Asia: Impact on Indian Foreign and Security Policies”), 中国国际战略评论2012 (China International Strategy Review 2012), Centre for International Strategic Studies, Peking University, June 2012, pp. 62-72.

内容提要:2012年1月发布的”维持美国全球领导地位:21世界国防重点”阐明了未来十年美国的重点安全目标,引起各国广泛关注.本文从美制定该战略的国内,国际背景和重点内容入手,分析了美国向亚洲再平衡将对中国和印度造成哪些外交,安全等方面的影响,指出印美间存在不可逾越的分歧,印应在新形势下同时处理好对华和对没关系,实现本国在亚洲,乃至世界发挥更大作用的抱负.

Abstract: Announced in January 2012, “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” expounds on the United States’ key security goals in the coming decade, and has generated wide interest in the countries of the region. This article begins by outlining the domestic and international contexts and the key points of the United States’ rebalancing towards Asia. It then analyzes the possible foreign policy, security and other implications for China and India, pointing out that there are insurmountable differences between the United States and India. In the new environment, India has to simultaneously handle well its relations with both the United States and China while trying to achieve its regional, even global, ambitions most effectively.

关键词: 美国国际安全战略,美印关系,亚太安全,中印关系

Keywords: American international security strategy, Indo-US relations, Asia-Pacific security, Sino-Indian relations

(The abstract above in English is a rough translation. I would have summarized it somewhat differently. The original text in English follows below).

In January 2012, the US Department of Defense (DoD) released a new strategic plan titled, “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,”[1] putting forward key American security goals for the coming decade. While US military forces will continue to be involved in security missions around the world, the Pentagon document was notable for the assertion that the US “will of necessity rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific region” (italics in original) (p.2). This doctrine has been widely described as a US ‘pivot’ toward Asia and within China views about the American move have ranged from seeing a fresh US attempt at a containment strategy to calling for calm while continuing to pursue its national interest.[2] Continue reading “The US ‘Pivot’ to Asia: Impact on Indian Foreign and Security Policies”

Chinese Defence Minister’s Visit to India: Seeking opportunity amid crises

The visit to India by the Chinese Defence Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie last week, needs to be examined for what it says about four important or potentially important issues in the Sino-Indian bilateral relationship – the AfPak situation, the boundary dispute, bilateral military cooperation, and Chinese views about the Indian media. Continue reading “Chinese Defence Minister’s Visit to India: Seeking opportunity amid crises”

Sino-Indian Cooperation: Will Oil Companies Show the Way?

(original version in English follows below Hindi text)

दक्षिण चीन सागर में स्प्रेटली और पारासेल द्वीप समूह पर कब्जे को लेकर चीन का अपने पड़ोसियों के साथ झगड़े के इस दौर में जो हलचल मची है उसमें भारत की क्या भूमिका रही है? भारत का मानना है यह विवाद शांतिपूर्ण बातचीत और अंतरराष्ट्रीय कानून के तहत सुलझा लिया जाना चाहिए। लेकिन वास्तव में इसमें इसकी भूमिका किसी दर्शक से ज्यादा की है।

भारतीय तेल कंपनियां दक्षिण चीन सागर में 1980 के दशक   के उत्तराद्र्ध से ही सक्रिय रही हैं। Continue reading “Sino-Indian Cooperation: Will Oil Companies Show the Way?”