Monthly Archives: November 2013

Sino-Indian Relations: Beyond Symbolism and Beyond Belligerence

Published as जैबिन टी जैकब, ‘युद्धोन्माद से परे देखें भारत-चीन रिश्ते को’, Business Bhaskar, 13 November 2013.

Original text in English follows below

भारतीय प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह की अक्टूबर मध्य में चीन की यात्रा और चीनी प्रधानमंत्री ली केक्यांग की मई में भारत की यात्रा पर गौर करें तो यह पहली बार हुआ है कि दोनों देशों के शीर्ष नेता एक ही साल में एक-दूसरे के यहां गए हैं। ली की यात्रा के समय देपसांग में करीब तीन हफ्ते तक जारी घुसपैठ का मामला सामने आया था,

तो सिंह के दौरे के समय दो अरुणाचली तीरंदाजों तीरंदाजों (खिलाडिय़ों) को चीन में एक प्रतिस्पर्धा में हिस्सा लेने के लिए जाते समय नत्थी वीजा दिए जाने का मामला सामने आया। लेकिन सच तो यह है कि भारत-चीन रिश्ते को न तो इस तरह के प्रतीकवाद और न ही युद्धोन्माद सही मायने में पेश करते हैं।

उदाहरण के लिए यह याद रखना महत्वपूर्ण है कि चीन में कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी के महासचिव और चीन जनवादी गणतंत्र के राष्ट्रपति के रूप में शी जिनपिंग का ओहदा ली केक्यांग से ऊंचा है। इसी प्रकार यह तथ्य भी ध्यान रखना चाहिए कि चीनियों ने मनमोहन सिंह का अच्छा स्वागत किया है जिनकी शायद प्रधानमंत्री के रूप में यह अंतिम चीन यात्रा साबित हो।

यह तथ्य किसी से छुपा नहीं है कि सिंह ऐसी सरकार का प्रतिनिधित्व कर रहे हैं जो अपने घर में विश्वसनीयता के संकट का सामना कर रही है, इसे देखते हुए भारत एवं चीन के बीच किसी तरह की सौदेबाजी कठिन और दुष्प्राप्य थी।

दोनों महाशक्तियों के बीच रिश्ते को स्थानीय घटनाओं, क्षेत्रीय पर्यावरण और वैश्विक परिस्थितियों, इन सबका एक साथ असर होता है। Continue reading Sino-Indian Relations: Beyond Symbolism and Beyond Belligerence

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India and the CHOGM in Sri Lanka: Well Played, Actually

Published as जबिन टी. जैकब, ‘श्रीलंका पर सही फैसला’, Dainik Jagran, 12 November 2013.

Original text in English follows below

प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह इस सप्ताह श्रीलंका में राष्ट्रमंडल देशों के शासनाध्यक्षों के सम्मेलन (चोगम) में भाग लेने नहीं जा रहे हैं। प्रधानमंत्री का यह फैसला एक राजनेता के साथ ही सरकार के मुखिया की हैसियत से लिया गया एक सुलझा हुआ निर्णय है। मीडिया के एक वर्ग द्वारा चोगम में प्रधानमंत्री के भाग न लेने को अनुचित ठहराना और इसे राजनीतिक दबाव में राष्ट्रीय हितों की बलि करार देना बिल्कुल गलत है। प्रधानमंत्री से सबसे पहली और महत्वपूर्ण अपेक्षा देश को चलाने की होती है और देश चलाते हुए उन्हें निर्वाचन प्रक्रिया से अपनी पार्टी को मिले जनादेश पर बराबर ध्यान रखना पड़ता है। निर्वाचन प्रक्त्रिया ही केंद्र में सरकार का स्वरूप निर्धारित करती है। ऐसे में सरकार पर गठबंधन के सहयोगी विभिन्न क्षेत्रीय दलों का प्रभाव स्वाभाविक ही है।

विदेश में भारत के राष्ट्रीय हितों और घरेलू राजनीतिक दबाव में अंतर्विरोध जरूरी नहीं है। Continue reading India and the CHOGM in Sri Lanka: Well Played, Actually

China Policy in India: For a Revolution in Mindsets

Grand strategy on China requires political attention, bureaucratic competence, military capability and academic expertise. If any one of these is missing, strategy is hobbled, and one can forget about grand strategy altogether.

With the Indian political leadership reeling from corruption scandals and already in preparation for general elections, foreign policy has suffered from lack of political attention. In fact, the impression has gained ground that policies related to defence and external affairs have of late been outsourced to the bureaucrats. While most criticize the government’s China policy, calling it pusillanimous and ineffective, the more serious issue is missed – no matter how competent the bureaucrats, policy in a democracy must be seen as being initiated and guided by elected political leaders. Continue reading China Policy in India: For a Revolution in Mindsets

China in South Asia: Influence and Feedback

Presentation made at the British High Commission, New Delhi, 22 August 2013.

Outline

A. Developing countries, Duo

–          ideological connect

  • non-Western
    • genuine Marxist feeling in the unity of the Third World
    • minus the Maoist “you’re either with us or against us”
  • coalition building

–          common national interests

  • anti-Western / non-Western
  • international organizations
  • trade
  • energy security

B. China Solo Continue reading China in South Asia: Influence and Feedback

China and Pakistan: Towards Increasing Dissonance?

Presentation titled, “Sino-Pak Partnership: Changing Strategically” at International Workshop on Recent Security Challenges in the Asia Pacific and India-China Relations, Institute of Chinese Communist Studies, Taipei, Taiwan, 31 July 2013.

A. an important objective of the Sino-Pak relationship is to keep India off-balance.

a. Sino-Pak military cooperation is the primary method                                 i.      this involves the Chinese sale of conventional weapons  as well as earlier transfers of nuclear weapons

ii.      today, there is also transfer of civilian nuclear technology that can no doubt be put to dual use by Pakistan

iii.      cooperation with the Chinese military further strengthens the Pak military and helps to undermine still further the Pak civilian government’s attempts at putting down deep roots.

iv.      however, could there also be Chinese concerns about Pakistani military capabilities, if not Pakistani reliability in general, given the Abbottabad attack on Osama bin Laden’s hide-out by US special forces?

b. Sino-Pak political cooperation is secondary  Continue reading China and Pakistan: Towards Increasing Dissonance?

A Framework for Understanding Sino-Indian Ties

Presentation titled, ‘India and China:Competition or Cooperation?’ at International Workshop on Recent Security Challenges in the Asia Pacific and India-China Relations, Institute of Chinese Communist Studies, Taipei, Taiwan, 30 July 2013.

Outline

What framework can we use to understand the current Sino-Indian relationship?

A.  two bookends of the relationship

  • the boundary dispute
  • the need for bilateral cooperation to both transform the current global order and to tackle their own internal problems

B.  the regular stuff in the relationship

  • regular ‘incursions’ at the Line of Actual Control
  • frequent high-level visits between leaders

C.  the irregular stuff in the relationship

  • infrequently organized people-to-people exchanges in the form of cultural shows, film festivals, etc.
  • sporadic attempts at military-to-military exchanges

D.  the framework Continue reading A Framework for Understanding Sino-Indian Ties

Military CBMs, Bilateral Agreements and the Sino-Indian Relationship

Abstract

It is a fact that New Delhi and Beijing have concluded some major bilateral agreements—here used to refer to treaties, statements and declarations—with implications for the boundary dispute since the end of the Cold War. Given that these agreements have been reached between two former belligerents that continue to have many reasons to be suspicious of each other, it must be surmised that they were concluded after tough negotiations and with great deliberation from both sides. While Indian foreign policy is often accused of lacking a grand strategy, these agreements suggest if not a vision for the direction of Sino-Indian relations, at least a desire to keep these stable and peaceful. This chapter is a brief examination of key agreements concluded between India and China in the post-Cold War era with implications for their boundary dispute, including the development and progression of military CBMs between the two countries.

Kibithu, in  Anjaw District, Arunachal Pradesh that lies close to the LAC
Kibithu in Anjaw District, Arunachal Pradesh, that lies close to the LAC

Published as ‘Bilateral Agreements and Sino-Indian Confidence-Building Measures’, in Dipankar Banerjee and Jabin T. Jacob, Military Confidence-Building and India-China Relations: Fighting Distrust (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2013), pp. 151-161.

Sino-Indian Military CBMs: Efficacy and Influences

Abstract

India and China have yet to resolve their long-standing boundary dispute. But in recent years they have built a carefully crafted architecture of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) to prevent possibilities of any adverse developments along the disputed border. What is the state of current CBMs as perceived by leading experts from India and China? How have these held up to the pressures of recent years? Where do national perceptions merge or contend? What additional measures might be needed to strengthen those CBMs that already exist?

Mil CBMs-Banerjee-Jacob

Published as co-author with Dipankar Banerjee, ‘Sino-Indian Military CBMs: Efficacy and Influences’, in Dipankar Banerjee and Jabin T. Jacob, Military Confidence-Building and India-China Relations: Fighting Distrust (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2013), pp. 1-11.