Originally published as Jabin T. Jacob, ‘China’s Provinces and Foreign Policy: Lessons and Implications for India and its States’ in Subir Bhaumik (ed.), Agartala Doctrine: A Proactive Northeast in India Foreign Policy (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2016), pp. 253-70.
Even without their rising world profiles as a starting point, it has long been a common enough exercise to compare and contrast India and China at various stages since the end of the Second World War. While the two nations started out under their new leaderships as developing nations united against colonialism and attempted for a time to work together as beacons for Asian rejuvenation, the realities of geopolitics, differing viewpoints about history and civilization and the remnants of imperial legacies soon resulted in a short border conflict in 1962 that however has cast a long shadow on their relations.
During the Cold War, the contrast between the two countries was also political and ideological and for a time, especially in the wake of revelations about Chinese communist excesses of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, it was assumed that India with its regular elections was doing much better than China was. However, despite its problems, communist China also raised considerably the social and human development indicators of its people while India continued to remain mired in poverty, illiteracy and various forms of social backwardness. There was also the brief interregnum of Emergency, which also tarnished India’s reputation as a paragon of democratic virtues in the developing world.
However, none of these developments and contrasts was nearly as consequential as those that would come following the beginning of China’s economic reforms and opening up in the late 1970s. By the time India started its own economic liberalization programme in 1991, China had started opening up a gap with India on the economic front in addition to the lead in social indicators that it already held. At the turn of the millennium, China could genuinely claim the mantle of a rising world power in both political and economic terms, while India was struggling to shake off the international opprobrium that came in the wake of its 1998 nuclear tests and to get into the same high economic gear as the Chinese had. Both its growing economy and a combination of international circumstances involving worries about China’s perceived challenge to the United States as well as its rapid military modernization combined to make India attractive again to the world at large before the 2008 financial crisis and government paralysis combined to put the brakes on India’s economic growth again, if not quite its political importance. Nevertheless, the India story also now appears to have a momentum of its own with a young demographic, active state governments and an economy unburdened by the shackles of an earlier command economy and free to make the adjustments to domestic and global circumstances as necessary.
The purpose of this chapter is to examine in more detail the role of Chinese provinces in the country’s growth story and to see how this experience can be a learning experience for Indian states. Continue reading Indian States and Foreign Policy: Lessons from Chinese Provinces
This article was originally published as Jabin T. Jacob, ‘Is it wise for India to stay out of Silk Road initiative?’, South Asia Monitor, 12 May 2015, before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China.
Of the predictions that came true, more sister-province/state and sister-city agreements, announcement of a new visa arrangement, an India-China Think-tank Forum.
It is now slowly but increasingly evident to Indians across the board that China, their largest neighbour, will likely be their most important foreign policy challenge for decades to come. Gradually but surely, China will come to occupy regular attention in India across a range of fields from geopolitics to scientific research and development to political and ideological creativity. In this context, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to China and the media coverage it will generate will be an important milestone in how Indians perceive and understand China.
Modi has gained a reputation for extreme secrecy and last minute ‘deals’ during visits abroad. China, however, will not be such an easy place to do this. Unless, of course, CPC General Secretary and Chinese President, Xi Jinping, is willing to play ball. This however, is unlikely, given the Chinese self-image of being in a league of just two, contending with the US for regional and global domination while everybody else is for all practical purposes, and despite any rhetoric to the contrary, slotted into lower tiers of importance.
What then are the possible agreements that the two sides might reach during the Modi visit? Continue reading Expectations from the Modi Visit to China
This is the modified version of a Valedictory Address delivered at a conference titled, Citizen’s Foreign Policy at the Department of Political Science, Rashtrasant Tukadoji Maharaj Nagpur University on 11 November 2014
It is an important distinction to make between citizen’s foreign policy and people’s foreign policy. While the latter is generally used in the sense of ensuring that foreign policy is not just a matter of high politics but is also one of wider democratic consideration of the interests of ordinary people as well, it is also in this sense liable to be misused or misinterpreted. Just as democracy by the numbers alone does not convey the full import of the values and spirit of democracy, so also simple reference to the ‘people’ as a way of legitimizing a foreign policy choice has its drawbacks. The reference to a citizen however comes with clear implications. Continue reading Reclaiming India’s Foreign Policy for its Citizens
Originally published as Jabin T. Jacob, ‘Xi Jinping visit: High on expectations, low on delivery’, Hindustan Times, 22 September 2014, p. 12.
Nobody expected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to wrap their arms around each other in a bear hug. A rightwing nationalist BJP-led government in India and a Communist Party of China that relies heavily on nationalism as a crutch for continued legitimacy at home were not expected to have it easy at the first formal summit of their leaders, especially on political and strategic issues.
Expectations however, were sky-high on the economic front. Continue reading The Modi-Xi Tango: Missteps and Fluffed Lines?
Published as जबिन टी. जैकब, ‘नाजुक रिश्तों की नई दिशा’, Dainik Jagran (New Delhi), 20 September 2014, p. 10
Original text in English follows below.
चीन के राष्ट्रपति शी चिनफिंग का तीन दिवसीय भारत दौरा संपन्न होगा। इसे कई कारणों से खासी ख्याति मिली। हालांकि ठोस नतीजों की बात करें तो इससे कोई बहुत महत्वपूर्ण दिशा उभरती दिखाई नहीं दी। सालों से चीन ने जिन चीजों के लिए प्रसिद्धि हासिल की है वे हैं इसकी परियोजनाओं का वृहद आकार, तीव्र महत्वाकांक्षाएं और इन्हें पूरा करने की तेज रफ्तार। इन तमाम मुद्दों पर चीन के राष्ट्रपति का भारत दौरा खरा नहीं उतरता।
शी चिनफिंग और नरेंद्र मोदी, दोनों नेता अपने-अपने देश में मजबूत माने जाते हैं और इसलिए लंबे समय से लंबित सीमा विवाद का राजनीतिक हल निकालने की स्थिति में नजर आते हैं। हालांकि विश्लेषकों ने चीन के राष्ट्रपति की इस यात्रा के दौरान सीमा विवाद पर किसी बड़ी सफलता की उम्मीद नहीं की थी। हालांकि इस दौरे से आर्थिक मोर्चे पर बड़ी उम्मीदें थीं, क्योंकि यात्रा से पहले मुंबई में चीनी महावाणिज्य दूत ने चीन द्वारा भारत में सौ अरब डॉलर के निवेश की उम्मीद जताई थी। Continue reading Assessing the Xi Visit: After the Optics, A Reality Check
Published as 郑嘉宾, ‘中印面临一个历史性机遇’, 环球网, 19 September 2014.
当前，印中两国被视为全球经济增长的关键推动者，也是改革以西方为中心国际秩序的不可缺少的力量。现阶段，两国经济关系的最大问题是经贸不平衡。印度继续承受逆差， 这也影响着两国经济合作。解决这个问题或者把经贸差额保持在一定程度，要用一个简单的经济逻辑来处理。为了避免经济过热，中国必须把呆在银行的巨额资本拿到境外来投资。毫无疑问，鉴于经济的规模，印度就是中国投资的最佳场所。当然，中国也可以投资于美国或欧洲国债或者到世界上任何一个地方，但在印度投资一定会收获更多。 Continue reading Xi Meets Modi: A Historic Opportunity for Sino-Indian Leadership
co-authored with Alka Acharya and originally published as , ‘Modi, Xi and Great Expectations’, Rediff.com, 17 September 2014.
Symbolism is often as important as the essentials in conveying the magnitude of an event – especially when the eyes of the world are focused on it. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to receive the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Ahmedabad and establish a personal rapport in a culturally resonant setting with brisk economic undertones, before moving on to the capital, New Delhi, has certainly added the element which elevates the tenor and adds a dash of élan to this meeting between two of the most important leaders of Asia today. It will likely set the template for the relations between the two countries, at least for the next five years. The statements and body language of both these leaders will thus be closely scrutinized. Continue reading Xi visits India: Great Expectations
With a still young political leadership in both China and India, economic ties will be a major plank of the India-China relationship. Even as the burgeoning trade deficit for India is a major bilateral problem, the two countries are also trying to lay fresh sinews in their relationship through Chinese-assisted infrastructure development in India. What is also important to note that is that much of these economic interactions are or will be increasingly negotiated at the sub-national level. Continue reading Sino-Indian Sub-National Economic Ties: Changing the Game
Original presentation titled, ‘People-to-People Connectivity’, Stakeholders’ Consultative Workshop on the BCIM Economic Corridor, organized by the Institute of Chinese Studies with the Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies (MAKAIAS) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Kolkata, 2 May 2014.
A. What are your governing values/principles in which you see people-to-people connectivity?
B. What are you trying to achieve?
C. What are you trying to avoid?
D. What are the practical issues involved in implementing these principles and achieving these objectives? Continue reading People-to-People Connectivity in the BCIM Region: Principles and Practicalities