A US-India-China Trilateral? Big Promise but Dim Prospects

(original text in English follows below the Hindi text)

पिछले महीने तीसरे इंडो-यूएस रणनीतिक वार्ता के बाद दक्षिण और मध्य एशिया के लिए अमेरिकी सहायक विदेश मंत्री रॉबर्ट ब्लैक ने कहा, अमेरिका चीन और भारत के साथ एक त्रिपक्षीय वार्ता करना चाहता है ताकि अफगानिस्तान समेत तमाम दूसरे मुद्दों पर मिलकर काम हो सके। हालांकि मौजूदा अंतरराष्ट्रीय माहौल में यह देखने वाली बात होगी कि इस तरह की त्रिपक्षीय वार्ता की गुंजाइश बनती भी है या नहीं? Continue reading “A US-India-China Trilateral? Big Promise but Dim Prospects”

Bhutan in a China Teacup

News of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meeting with his Bhutanese counterpart Jigme Yoser Thinley, on the sidelines of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development at Rio de Janeiro last month, grabbed considerable attention in India. The Chinese state-owned Global Times announced that the Bhutanese leader had expressed willingness to establish diplomatic ties with China.

While the news was later denied by the Bhutanese, there are a number of issues that the incident raises about India’s relations with its smaller neighbours and specifically with Bhutan and China. Continue reading “Bhutan in a China Teacup”

India’s China Policy: Time to Overcome Political Drift

Originally published as Jabin T. Jacob, “India’s China Policy: Time to Overcome Political Drift,” RSIS Policy Brief, June 2012.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A foreign policy without competent and visionary political direction, especially in a democratic dispensation, is a serious shortcoming. The Indian government’s policy towards China in recent years has been driven more by bureaucratic expertise and military demands than by political vision. Such a foreign policy risks either missing opportunities provided by the global situation or diverting and wasting limited national resources. As a rising global power, New Delhi can scarce afford the current drift in its foreign policy. With China as neighbour and one that has a head start in many aspects of national and global power and influence, the lack of initiative and boldness in its China policy are likely to be even more costly for India.

RECOMMENDATIONS

• India will have to develop its own expertise and viewpoints on China instead of relying only on Western sources and perspectives. The rapid establishment of centres for the study of China now under way in India needs to be better planned and coordinated. Resources promised by the government must both be made available on time and increased.

Read the rest here

India and Myanmar: Some Chinese Perceptions and Linkages

Manmohan Singh’s visit to Myanmar in late May – the first by an Indian Prime Minister in 25 years – inevitably brings up comparisons to what China does in Myanmar. It is therefore interesting to see how the Chinese themselves perceived the visit.

While the Chinese Foreign Ministry did its job by being diplomatic and welcoming the Indian visit, the state-run Global Times – known for its vituperative comments about China’s rivals – had an editorial titled “Myanmar trip shows India’s deluded mindset,” (29 May) that seemed designed to offend. Yet, the article also captures the many lines of thinking that operate simultaneously in China when it comes to India. Continue reading “India and Myanmar: Some Chinese Perceptions and Linkages”

How Red is my Communist?

(original text in English follows below the Hindi text)

माक्र्सवादी कम्यूनिस्ट पार्टी में भारतीय राजनीतिक दलों की सारी खूबियां हैं भी और नहीं भी। मसलन पार्टी में नीतिगत मसलों के नाम पर पार्टी नेताओं को बीच गुटबाजी और आपस में टकराव आम है। दुनिया भर के दूसरे राजनीतिक दलों में भी यह बीमारी है। चीन की कम्यूनिस्ट पार्टी यानी सीपीसी भी इसकी अपवाद नहीं है।

हालांकि सीपीएम जैसी माक्र्सवादी पार्टी अपनी गलतियों को मानने और उसका विश्लेषण करने में दूसरे भारतीय राजनीतिक दलों से ज्यादा सक्षम साबित हुई है। इसके साथ ही वह कुछ राजनीतिक दलों में से एक है जो व्यक्तिगत या वंशवादी नेतृत्व के उलट सामूहिक नेतृत्व में विश्वास दिखाता नजर आता है।

भारतीय राजनीति में कम ही दल सीपीएम की तरह अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्दों पर इतना ज्यादा ध्यान केंद्रित करते नजर आते हैं। वास्तव में भारतीय कम्यूनिस्ट पार्टी का 1964 में विभाजन भी चीन-सोवियत के वैचारिक मतभेदों के आधार पर हुआ था। चीनी कम्यूनिस्टों का पक्ष लेने वालों ने माक्र्सवादी कम्यूनिस्ट पार्टी की स्थापना की थी। इसलिए आज यह जानना दिलचस्प होगा कि सीपीएम चीन की कम्यूनिस्ट पार्टी (सीपीसी) के बारे में क्या सोचती है। आखिर सीपीसी और सीपीएम में क्या समानताएं और असमानताएं हैं। Continue reading “How Red is my Communist?”

Chen Guangcheng: One Blind Man in a Tale of Two Governments

In late April, 40-year old blind Chinese civil rights activist, Chen Guangcheng dramatically escaped house arrest and turned up at the US embassy in Beijing seeking refuge. After several twists and turns, it seems that a deal has been struck between Beijing and Washington that will allow the activist to leave China together with his family on the pretext of pursing higher studies. While the incident has probably not yet reached its denouement, it nevertheless provides a useful opportunity to reflect on the evolving Sino-US relationship. Continue reading “Chen Guangcheng: One Blind Man in a Tale of Two Governments”

Migration and Exile at the Thai-Myanmar Border

A short account of a trip that I went on between 28 July and 6 August 2011 along with Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman and Brian Orland. As all good trips go, it was decided at virtually the 11th hour. Mirza and I met at a coffee shop pretty much decided we were headed to Northeast India in a few days time. There must have been something in the coffee, for we swung from Tripura to Thailand in the space of a few minutes and Brian then joined us because he happened to be in the neighbourhood. The account below was originally written for a strategic affairs think-tank and so does not do full justice to our trip that was full of interesting people, places, and happenings. Perhaps another time.

Thailand has been involved in a number of ways in developments across the border in Burma. While trade and commerce through multiple points on the border form a very big part of their bilateral relationship, also coming through the borders has been a steady stream of Burmese refugees and migrant workers. Prominent points of contact include the Three Pagodas Pass and Mae Sot, both in western Thailand and Mae Sai in northern Thailand. Continue reading “Migration and Exile at the Thai-Myanmar Border”

China and India’s Agni-V Missile Test

(original text in English follows below the Hindi text)

देश और इससे बाहर, पांच हजार किलोमीटर तक मार करने वाली अग्नि -5 मिसाइल के सफल परीक्षण की व्याख्या हो रही है। माना जा रहा है इसका निशाना चीन है। इस मिसाइल की सफल तैनाती से पूरा चीन भारत के परमाणु हथियारों की जद में आ जाएगा। मिसाइल के इस परीक्षण से देश के कुछ हलकों में एक उत्साह का माहौल दिखाई दे रहा है।

बहरहाल, कड़वा यथार्थ यही है कि परमाणु हथियार की क्षमता हासिल होने की थोड़ी सी भी सुगबुगाहट हो तो प्रतिस्पद्र्धियों हमला करने से विचलित हो जाते हैं। उत्तरी कोरिया और इसके अंतरराष्ट्रीय संबंध यह साबित करने के लिए काफी हैं। अगर पहले नहीं तो कम से 1998 तक तो भारत ने चीन के खिलाफ परमाणु क्षमता हासिल कर ही ली थी। हालांकि यह भी नहीं कहा जा सकता कि ऐसा नहीं होता तो चीन भारत के खिलाफ हमले की योजना बना डालता। Continue reading “China and India’s Agni-V Missile Test”

India-Taiwan Relations: Slow and Steady Does It

Published by the World Politics Review’s Global Insider as “Taiwanese President’s Stopover in India Sign of a Warming Trend,” on 20 April 2012. These questions were answered together with Dr. Fang Tien-sze, Assistant Professor, National Tsing-hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.

 

WPR: How have India-Taiwan relations evolved over the past 10 years?

Fang Tien-sze and Jabin T. Jacob: India-Taiwan relations have improved gradually in many areas over the past few years. Bilateral trade has expanded from $1.1 billion in 2001 to $7.6 billion in 2011. The two sides signed a bilateral investment and protection agreement in 2002 and agreements on double taxation and customs assistance in July 2011. India and Taiwan have also commissioned think tanks to jointly study the feasibility and likely results of a free trade agreement. In the field of education, in March 2010 the two sides decided to recognize each other’s academic degrees and certificates in higher education, facilitating student mobility for advanced studies and job purposes. Earlier, in 2007, the two signed an agreement on scientific and technological cooperation, creating a joint committee that meets every year to formulate cooperation programs and activities.

At the political level, New Delhi appears to be showing increasing flexibility. Continue reading “India-Taiwan Relations: Slow and Steady Does It”