‘Xi Jinping, Not The PLA: A Simpler Explanation for India-China Tensions’, Both Watches, Indian Naval Despatch, Vol. 5 No. 2024. 1. 5-9.

The principle of Occam’s razor states that if you have two competing ideas to explain a phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one. In other words, the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is usually the correct one.

Ambassador Prabhat Shukla’s explanation for the tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China in the last decade is that they are the result of friction between Communist Party of China (CPC) General Secretary and Chinese President, Xi Jinping on the one hand and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on the other arguing that “Xi would like to see an early settlement of the territorial dispute with India, whereas the PLA prefers to continue to put military pressure on India” (p.27). It is an explanation that requires many assumptions and inferences made on the basis of non-existent evidence or tenuous connections.

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